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Let's hash this out: How to best release rare things...

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Let's hash this out: How to best release rare things...
« on: September 07, 2012, 12:43:42 PM »
 

Paul Carpenter

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Hey everyone,

A common complaint we seem to come across every time anything rare or in limited numbers comes out is that some people get screwed, some people get lucky, some people don't even get the chance to buy.

With the release of Aurum coming in the near future, there will be some things that are naturally available in small numbers. I think that people will be quite interested in these things, and therefore I want to work out the fairest possible way to release stuff. If there are 500 people that want something, but only 25 to go around, how can we ensure everyone gets a fair chance?

Now I realize that I'm no Theory11 and won't have 20,000 people hitting my site at the same second, but I still think it would be valuable to talk about some ideas.

The way my store works now is that when you add to cart, you have a "hold" on that item and have 30 minutes to check out. This works pretty well, as it makes sure that you don't have something stolen away while trying to enter your payment info. However, this extends the time people need to hang around and try just in case someone doesn't follow through and the item is available again.

My best idea is to release certain things in batches at different times each day. Say we have 25 of something, maybe we'll do 5 each day (at 9am, 12pm, 3pm, 6pm, 10pm) to give everyone a chance without making half the world wait until 3am. I know that staying up late only to not get what you came for is terribly annoying.

Another idea I heard was a "lottery" where everyone that is interested emails specific info, and we draw names and those people get to buy it. This takes some of the time pressure off but this hurts the people that can plan ahead and be ready to buy. Also, everyone that didn't get picked feels a little cheated.

I'd like your ideas. With the huge disappointment we keep seeing at each big release, perhaps by working out a few good ideas we can help improve some of these situations and make more people happy.
Paul Carpenter
Designer - http://encarded.com

Tendril Ascendant & Nightfall  /  Standards /  Chancellor, Zenith, Deco, Aurum, Tendril: Sold Out
 

Re: Let's hash this out: How to best release rare things...
« Reply #1 on: September 07, 2012, 06:22:57 PM »
 

Joshua Robinson

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You have a point there Paul. , , there is really no way to make sure everyone gets a piece of something that gets released in a small 25 batch
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Re: Let's hash this out: How to best release rare things...
« Reply #2 on: September 07, 2012, 07:25:54 PM »
 

dee1orean

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One of the reasons I like kickstarter is because it gives you the chance to get what you want. if you want an uncut and two decks you pledge and if there's only 25 uncuts then it's first come first served.When something is limited there are always going to be those who are disappointed or angry when they miss out. The only way to avoid this is to not release anything limited. One thing you could do is offer a pre sale to those that backed you on kickstarter for The Tendril Deck. Which shows loyalty to those who helped you to begin with.
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Re: Let's hash this out: How to best release rare things...
« Reply #3 on: September 07, 2012, 07:32:23 PM »
 

smelyrhino

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Or just offer a presale to everyone who is interested in the "limited" items.  Everyone who is interested would make a pledge.

If not, you would have to expect for people to get disappointed.  A drawing, I believe, is the best method.  Just leave everything up to chance.  It'll also prevent people from purchasing multiple items or completing multiple orders just to turn it for a profit (assuming that this is a problem).

Just my two cents... <3
 

Re: Let's hash this out: How to best release rare things...
« Reply #4 on: September 07, 2012, 10:29:15 PM »
 

Don Boyer

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I like the idea of a "random gift", done as a sweepstakes.  Take all the people who donated to the cause, put names in a hat and pick 25 lucky people to simply get it for free.


If you want to use these promo cases to boost sales, give people one "chance" for each item they pledge for in their rewards.  Sure, the wealthier people will have more chances, but you could buy a thousand lottery tickets and still lose, or just one and still win, so it's the best way to both be fair and boost sales.


But to make the latter idea completely fair, only let each winner get one case.  People would freak if one person received more than one of such a limited resource.


Kickstarter won't allow lotteries?  Fine.  Don't announce it on Kickstarter.  Use your site.  Say that ANYONE receiving a deck straight from you - Kickstarters or buyers - get a shot.  Maybe give a free bonus draw to Kickstarters.


This is the closest you'll get to a system that's fair, equitable, uncomplicated and doesn't just cater to the people with the most money.  Of course, that would mean not charging for the cases, but the boost to your investments might be worth it.  I see a tax write-off...  :))
« Last Edit: September 07, 2012, 10:29:47 PM by Don Boyer »
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Re: Let's hash this out: How to best release rare things...
« Reply #5 on: September 08, 2012, 12:17:08 AM »
 

Utterfool

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When you are as limited on something as 25.
Do not release it in batches.
5 per day for 5 days means somebody who really wants it may have to tune in 5 days in a row and still miss out to the person with the really fast connection who sells 4 of the 5 they ended up purchasing on Ebay.
I think the idea of having everybody who wants one enter their email plus the address where you will send the item (this will help cut down on multiple sales to one person, sure people can have multiple addresses, but it is much easier to have multiple emails.)
Then you do a drawing of the entries and allow those people to purchase the item. If they do not purchase it by a certain date you do a redraw until you sell all the items.
I think this is by far the most fair way. It is completely random, it is harder for people to enter/win multiple times.  It also doesn't crash your site or bring on the ill will that comes (even when it isn't your fault) when someone goes to your site at 4:00AM tries for 3 hours and still doesn't get one.
 

Re: Let's hash this out: How to best release rare things...
« Reply #6 on: September 08, 2012, 08:00:55 AM »
 

Paul Carpenter

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Very interesting points everyone. I'm a little surprised that the lottery drawing method is a popular choice. It definitely does make it fair for all and does limit the number people can buy. I know I'm always disappointed when I miss a chance to get something and then see people with a dozen of them on eBay.

I won't be using Kickstarter for funding this time, so in this case I'll be doing more standard preorders. I can't limit people to a certain number of items in my current store. Perhaps I will look into other store options and see what is possible.

Keep the comments going, I want to know what you all think! Thanks.
Paul Carpenter
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Re: Let's hash this out: How to best release rare things...
« Reply #7 on: September 08, 2012, 01:31:46 PM »
 

Don Boyer

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Very interesting points everyone. I'm a little surprised that the lottery drawing method is a popular choice. It definitely does make it fair for all and does limit the number people can buy. I know I'm always disappointed when I miss a chance to get something and then see people with a dozen of them on eBay.

I won't be using Kickstarter for funding this time, so in this case I'll be doing more standard preorders. I can't limit people to a certain number of items in my current store. Perhaps I will look into other store options and see what is possible.

Keep the comments going, I want to know what you all think! Thanks.


For private funding, simply do a D&D-style drawing, like they did at the holidays.  Each deck gives you an entry into a drawing.  Set the deadline to a specific date "or while supplies last."  It'll boost the early sales on the deck, perhaps even help with triggering a sellout.
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Re: Let's hash this out: How to best release rare things...
« Reply #8 on: September 08, 2012, 04:50:48 PM »
 

Aaron

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I think the standard first-come first-served is the best, that is one of my favorite things in the world, the feeling right before a new deck release when I am sitting at my laptop very nervous hoping I get the deck.

And it is the most fair people who get there first get to buy first. The lottery mothed has too many problems and could seem corrupt IMO (not saying Paul would rig it but some people might)
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Re: Let's hash this out: How to best release rare things...
« Reply #9 on: September 08, 2012, 11:41:59 PM »
 

chisairi

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bidding style would be the best. top dollar takes home the item. 25 units meaning 25 auction at different times. this way everyone can join and have a chance to take home the item and it prevents people from buying a dozen and post on ebay for high mark up price. bidding system already makes the buyer paying top dollar thus adding mark up on ebay just would not sell at all.
 

Re: Let's hash this out: How to best release rare things...
« Reply #10 on: September 09, 2012, 12:13:33 AM »
 

Noobmachine

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bidding style would be the best. top dollar takes home the item. 25 units meaning 25 auction at different times. this way everyone can join and have a chance to take home the item and it prevents people from buying a dozen and post on ebay for high mark up price. bidding system already makes the buyer paying top dollar thus adding mark up on ebay just would not sell at all.

I think that this is a terrible idea, no offence :), but this would just cause alot more people to be unhappy, and the guy with the most money would almost win... Plus, the price of the item would be so varied, and it would be pretty unfair if someone got it at say $100 while some lucky fellow managed to get it at $50. To me I think the email lottery seems most fair, especially if its a 25 item release. There should also be like some kind of spending requirement before getting to enter in the lottery though, not just 1 deck, like maybe at least 4-6 decks? Or you could do a price based thing like Ellusionist where after spending a certain amount of money you get the chance to buy the limited item.
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Re: Let's hash this out: How to best release rare things...
« Reply #11 on: September 09, 2012, 07:21:16 AM »
 

anep21

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I think the standard first-come first-served is the best, that is one of my favorite things in the world, the feeling right before a new deck release when I am sitting at my laptop very nervous hoping I get the deck.

And it is the most fair people who get there first get to buy first. The lottery mothed has too many problems and could seem corrupt IMO (not saying Paul would rig it but some people might)

totally agree with you. the lottery is the most unfair i think because only 25 people will get the chance. if you release it the normal way, every one will get the chance to purchase it
 

Re: Let's hash this out: How to best release rare things...
« Reply #12 on: September 09, 2012, 07:23:06 PM »
 

Don Boyer

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I think the standard first-come first-served is the best, that is one of my favorite things in the world, the feeling right before a new deck release when I am sitting at my laptop very nervous hoping I get the deck.

And it is the most fair people who get there first get to buy first. The lottery mothed has too many problems and could seem corrupt IMO (not saying Paul would rig it but some people might)


That's the furthest thing from fair, really.  Anyone from other parts of the globe would be forced to stay awake into the wee hours or risk personal web surfing while at work to have a shot at it.  People with slow Internet connections (or interruptions in the Internet in their area) will automatically lose out.  And in the end, the most likely result will be that the server Paul uses will get swamped by thousands of hits and end up choking on the excess.
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Re: Let's hash this out: How to best release rare things...
« Reply #13 on: September 09, 2012, 09:45:27 PM »
 

jmrock

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I truly am fine with the, 'spend x amount of dollars and receive a free deck' method... It's a win / win for the collectors and the company... Those who really want the deck have to shell out a bit more than they ordinarily would, but they get some additional decks... The people serious about the deck will not mind spending some extra money... These days, given the current climate in the market, anyone shouting, "No fair, I should have the chance to get my White Monarch, Gold Crown, & CARC Skull decks for $15 each" is thinking unrealistically... Happy collecting to everyone and may you all get the decks you want without breaking the bank...
 

Re: Let's hash this out: How to best release rare things...
« Reply #14 on: September 09, 2012, 10:37:56 PM »
 

vmagic

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I truly am fine with the, 'spend x amount of dollars and receive a free deck' method... It's a win / win for the collectors and the company... Those who really want the deck have to shell out a bit more than they ordinarily would, but they get some additional decks... The people serious about the deck will not mind spending some extra money... These days, given the current climate in the market, anyone shouting, "No fair, I should have the chance to get my White Monarch, Gold Crown, & CARC Skull decks for $15 each" is thinking unrealistically... Happy collecting to everyone and may you all get the decks you want without breaking the bank...

That is probably the best idea. If you want it and you spend a certain amount of money then it is yours. Sure you end up spending like $100 most of the time but at least you get that rare deck when you do. And it prevents resellers from buying 2 bricks and selling them on Ebay because they simply won't be able to do it, lol.
 

Re: Let's hash this out: How to best release rare things...
« Reply #15 on: September 10, 2012, 12:26:01 AM »
 

NathanCanadas

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I would go with either one of two types of lotteries: the first one, where everyone pays a small amount to enter, with one entry per person max, and 25 people are chosen at random. Those who don't win have lost those 5-10$ they put in to enter.
The other type of lottery is basically the same but the losers are refunded.
 

Re: Let's hash this out: How to best release rare things...
« Reply #16 on: September 10, 2012, 01:54:56 AM »
 

Aaron

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I think the standard first-come first-served is the best, that is one of my favorite things in the world, the feeling right before a new deck release when I am sitting at my laptop very nervous hoping I get the deck.

And it is the most fair people who get there first get to buy first. The lottery mothed has too many problems and could seem corrupt IMO (not saying Paul would rig it but some people might)


That's the furthest thing from fair, really.  Anyone from other parts of the globe would be forced to stay awake into the wee hours or risk personal web surfing while at work to have a shot at it.  People with slow Internet connections (or interruptions in the Internet in their area) will automatically lose out.  And in the end, the most likely result will be that the server Paul uses will get swamped by thousands of hits and end up choking on the excess.

I have slow internet and I do fine buying rare releases. It is really just too bad for those people then, If you want the deck stay up or set an alarm to get the deck, if they dont that is their problem.

The only way to give everyone a fair chance is to do a regular release.

Spend-X to get something just drives the price for the item way up, and only allows people with lots of money to purchase. And it is only good for people who dont own alot from the site

Bidding is the worst idea I have ever heard for a release it either screws the buyer or the seller

Lottery is stupid because of all the corruption it is prone too and people who dont get a chance to buy will be pissed off.

People just need to stop being whiney when stuff is released and if they get the stuff congrats and if they don't suck it up and hope for luck on the next release.

The ONLY way to release items fairly is on a first-com first-served basis.
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Re: Let's hash this out: How to best release rare things...
« Reply #17 on: September 10, 2012, 02:42:56 AM »
 

Don Boyer

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I have slow internet and I do fine buying rare releases. It is really just too bad for those people then, If you want the deck stay up or set an alarm to get the deck, if they dont that is their problem.

So then you wouldn't mind if the sale took place at 3:15am on a weekday, during a time that your Internet service was down due to a huge storm creating a power outage in your area?

The minute someone says something like "It's their problem", the statements made with it are usually about something that's anything but fair.

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The only way to give everyone a fair chance is to do a regular release.

I'll take these an item at a time...

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Spend-X to get something just drives the price for the item way up, and only allows people with lots of money to purchase. And it is only good for people who dont own alot from the site

How does it drive the price up?  The price of the case remains the same.  The fact that you would need to purchase other items as well is a factor, true, but they aren't part of the price of the case.  The threshold doesn't need to be up in the sky, really, as far as who can purchase.  But still, it's imperfect in that only the first 25 who hit that goal get that case.

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Bidding is the worst idea I have ever heard for a release it either screws the buyer or the seller

Agreed.  Auctioning would raise cash, but piss off the people without deep pockets - these days, that's a lot of people.

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Lottery is stupid because of all the corruption it is prone too and people who dont get a chance to buy will be pissed off.

This I disagree with.  Corruption?  What incentive does Paul have to run a corrupt auction?  Bribery?  It's a little ridiculous.  You could as easily say all lotteries are awful because of the potential corruption, whether or not such corruption even exists.  And who wouldn't be getting a chance?  If it's as simple as "buy a deck, get a chance", the only people without a chance are the people who didn't buy a deck, who by the very nature of the customized case would only be interested in it for its potential resale value and have no interest in actually purchasing Paul's primary product, his playing cards.

Quote
People just need to stop being whiney when stuff is released and if they get the stuff congrats and if they don't suck it up and hope for luck on the next release.

The ONLY way to release items fairly is on a first-com first-served basis.

I couldn't disagree more on this.

There's one thing that people need to remember about the idea of this little premium product.  Paul has probably created it with the intent of having it INCREASE HIS DECK SALES.  Letting it go to the first 25 people who log in a purchase, only to see few of them buy his deck and many of them putting it for sale on eBay at pirate's prices, doesn't help his deck sales one bit - if anything, the potential for LOST SALES from frustrated customers is higher in this case.

And don't forget, my idea for this would involve GIVING AWAY the cases rather than actually selling them - in essence, using them as a "loss leader" to get people to buy more decks than they'd originally planned to.  In a somewhat modified way, this is what E does with all of their limited-edition decks and other reward items given for purchases of a certain dollar amount - but Paul can't exactly emulate E on this because the cases are beyond rare compared to anything E is offering.  There's 5,000 of any rare E deck while there's only 25 Aurum cases.

There are two ways to create "fair" in this case.  There's "fair" with near-complete disregard to the sales of Aurum decks, and there's "fair" with the goal of increased sales in mind.

The first version of "fair" would be accomplished if anyone buying anything from him gets exactly one chance, period.  It's fair in the sense that everyone has an equal chance, but doesn't aid in the objective of selling more Aurum decks.

The second version of "fair" isn't absolutely fair, but it's a balance of being moderately fair and creating an incentive to buy more Aurum decks, and that's offering people one chance per deck they purchase, then setting a deadline date for a drawing to see who wins the deck cases (and not allowing anyone to obtain more than one case, so someone's winning chance being drawn more than once would simply result in a redraw).

While it's true that people with deeper pockets will purchase more decks and have more chances to get a case, it's also true that their odds won't dramatically increase unless they were buying decks in massive numbers - and in the end, all those decks bought still couldn't result in more than a single case going to that person.  Meanwhile, the "little guy" who might normally buy one or two decks still has a shot, and perhaps he'll buy three or four this time instead, with hopes of getting one of those super-rare cases.  And he does stand a chance of getting it, and Paul sells a LOT of decks this way.  He even can save on shipping costs for his customers, since depending on methods used, it can be as much to send one deck as it would be to ship three to six decks.
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Re: Let's hash this out: How to best release rare things...
« Reply #18 on: September 10, 2012, 04:53:10 AM »
 

K

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Trying to identify loopholes here and there, love viewing topics like these  ;D but nope, can't find any in this... benefits to all the customers and Paul himself

The second version of "fair" isn't absolutely fair, but it's a balance of being moderately fair and creating an incentive to buy more Aurum decks, and that's offering people one chance per deck they purchase, then setting a deadline date for a drawing to see who wins the deck cases (and not allowing anyone to obtain more than one case, so someone's winning chance being drawn more than once would simply result in a redraw).

While it's true that people with deeper pockets will purchase more decks and have more chances to get a case, it's also true that their odds won't dramatically increase unless they were buying decks in massive numbers - and in the end, all those decks bought still couldn't result in more than a single case going to that person.  Meanwhile, the "little guy" who might normally buy one or two decks still has a shot, and perhaps he'll buy three or four this time instead, with hopes of getting one of those super-rare cases.  And he does stand a chance of getting it, and Paul sells a LOT of decks this way.  He even can save on shipping costs for his customers, since depending on methods used, it can be as much to send one deck as it would be to ship three to six decks.

Despite this I would like to suggest something on top of that, release it in batches maybe 15-5-5 thus 'driving sales' at different dates throughout. perhaps the first 15 days for the first 15 cases, next 5 days so on and so forth. or maybe 5 cases per week? something so that everyone can buy even if they're busy, no excuses, fair for all... some may think that the later weeks are easier but then again the decks may run out of stock so maybe balancing it out?

Another thought, if lets say the run would be 5000, the first 1500 would have a draw of 15 cases, next 1000 etc. But keep the numbers to yourself because it might be unfair when numbers are out so calculation calculation...

lots of things to identify here but I'll leave it at that  :)
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Re: Let's hash this out: How to best release rare things...
« Reply #19 on: September 10, 2012, 05:09:33 AM »
 

lordlupus

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I truly am fine with the, 'spend x amount of dollars and receive a free deck' method... It's a win / win for the collectors and the company... Those who really want the deck have to shell out a bit more than they ordinarily would, but they get some additional decks... The people serious about the deck will not mind spending some extra money... These days, given the current climate in the market, anyone shouting, "No fair, I should have the chance to get my White Monarch, Gold Crown, & CARC Skull decks for $15 each" is thinking unrealistically... Happy collecting to everyone and may you all get the decks you want without breaking the bank...

I agree and support jmrock's point. You want the rare deck? You gotta pay more to support the designer.

I am fine with auction as well; more money for the designer.

I hate first come first serve or lottery. Seriously guys, I see a lot of "collectors" buying up the rare decks and then flipped them on evilbay to screw the real collectors. Why should the flippers earn from having the fastest Internet instead of the designer who has spent time and effort to produce a work of art?
 

Re: Let's hash this out: How to best release rare things...
« Reply #20 on: September 10, 2012, 11:13:26 AM »
 

Paul Carpenter

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See, this is why these forums are great. So many ideas and discussion, good stuff.

I'm still pondering things and will have to read through all these great points carefully and try to craft a system that is good for everyone.

I think one important factor is that for things that are very rare and hard to come by, enforcing a "1 per person" policy helps out everyone. For the people buying it, there is no way some rich opportunist can snap up half of them and immediately put them on eBay. I personally find that incredibly annoying and have felt pretty screwed when I stay up until midnight and miss out, only to see it on ebay the next day at 10x the price.

Having a 1 per person policy also helps me. If I sell these rare things, they will naturally be somewhat expensive and it does me no good to have someone else put them on eBay and make loads more money than I could after I had already set a fair price.

I think ultimately a hybrid of a lot of these ideas, coupled with a 1-per-person policy would result in the most people getting a fair chance and it would give me control as the creator to ensure that I'm not just fueling the aftermarket eBay people.
Paul Carpenter
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Re: Let's hash this out: How to best release rare things...
« Reply #21 on: September 10, 2012, 08:55:44 PM »
 

Aaron

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I have slow internet and I do fine buying rare releases. It is really just too bad for those people then, If you want the deck stay up or set an alarm to get the deck, if they dont that is their problem.

So then you wouldn't mind if the sale took place at 3:15am on a weekday, during a time that your Internet service was down due to a huge storm creating a power outage in your area?

The minute someone says something like "It's their problem", the statements made with it are usually about something that's anything but fair.


Haha ok first of all I love getting in debates like this. And I would be disappointed if that happened but that is my problem not the designer or other buyers problems. If I had internet though and it was a 3:15 release I would be fine to go on and get some decks.

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Spend-X to get something just drives the price for the item way up, and only allows people with lots of money to purchase. And it is only good for people who dont own alot from the site

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How does it drive the price up?  The price of the case remains the same.  The fact thatv you would need to purchase other items as well is a factor, true, but they aren't part of the price of the case.  The threshold doesn't need to be up in the sky, really, as far as who can purchase.  But still, it's imperfect in that only the first 25 who hit that goal get that case.

 It drives up the price because people want to get the money then spent just to get that item for free back and then they list the item at a higher price, it eventually comes down a bit but if you look at a deck like the LTD, it was around $75 for awile and is now down to $50. If people had not had to spend $150 to get them I think that they would be selling for less than that now.


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Lottery is stupid because of all the corruption it is prone too and people who dont get a chance to buy will be pissed off.

This I disagree with.  Corruption?  What incentive does Paul have to run a corrupt auction?  Bribery?  It's a little ridiculous.  You could as easily say all lotteries are awful because of the potential corruption, whether or not such corruption even exists.  And who wouldn't be getting a chance?  If it's as simple as "buy a deck, get a chance", the only people without a chance are the people who didn't buy a deck, who by the very nature of the customized case would only be interested in it for its potential resale value and have no interest in actually purchasing Paul's primary product, his playing cards.

[/quote]
Paul doesnt but I think it opens doors for unknown companies to do sketchy things, and in that type of theing in a closed drawing where you dont know how random it really is and stuff it could end up being unfair. The seller could forget names, put too many/not enough of some people in drawing, ect. just too many things could go wrong. Real lotteries have laws regulating these types of things. And I personally would not feel that the lottery is fair if some guy no one had ever heard of just told you some names.

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People just need to stop being whiney when stuff is released and if they get the stuff congrats and if they don't suck it up and hope for luck on the next release.

The ONLY way to release items fairly is on a first-come first-served basis.

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I couldn't disagree more on this.

There's one thing that people need to remember about the idea of this little premium product.  Paul has probably created it with the intent of having it INCREASE HIS DECK SALES.  Letting it go to the first 25 people who log in a purchase, only to see few of them buy his deck and many of them putting it for sale on eBay at pirate's prices, doesn't help his deck sales one bit - if anything, the potential for LOST SALES from frustrated customers is higher in this case.

And don't forget, my idea for this would involve GIVING AWAY the cases rather than actually selling them - in essence, using them as a "loss leader" to get people to buy more decks than they'd originally planned to.  In a somewhat modified way, this is what E does with all of their limited-edition decks and other reward items given for purchases of a certain dollar amount - but Paul can't exactly emulate E on this because the cases are beyond rare compared to anything E is offering.  There's 5,000 of any rare E deck while there's only 25 Aurum cases.

There are two ways to create "fair" in this case.  There's "fair" with near-complete disregard to the sales of Aurum decks, and there's "fair" with the goal of increased sales in mind.

The first version of "fair" would be accomplished if anyone buying anything from him gets exactly one chance, period.  It's fair in the sense that everyone has an equal chance, but doesn't aid in the objective of selling more Aurum decks.

The second version of "fair" isn't absolutely fair, but it's a balance of being moderately fair and creating an incentive to buy more Aurum decks, and that's offering people one chance per deck they purchase, then setting a deadline date for a drawing to see who wins the deck cases (and not allowing anyone to obtain more than one case, so someone's winning chance being drawn more than once would simply result in a redraw).

While it's true that people with deeper pockets will purchase more decks and have more chances to get a case, it's also true that their odds won't dramatically increase unless they were buying decks in massive numbers - and in the end, all those decks bought still couldn't result in more than a single case going to that person.  Meanwhile, the "little guy" who might normally buy one or two decks still has a shot, and perhaps he'll buy three or four this time instead, with hopes of getting one of those super-rare cases.  And he does stand a chance of getting it, and Paul sells a LOT of decks this way.  He even can save on shipping costs for his customers, since depending on methods used, it can be as much to send one deck as it would be to ship three to six decks.

that isnt a bad idea but I just really dont like the lottery idea, just a personal thing.

The best idea IMO aside from a first-come first-served is a spend-x system.
« Last Edit: September 10, 2012, 08:59:45 PM by Aaron »
People say nothing's impossible, but I do nothing everyday.

Today I found something that reminded me of you. But don't worry I flushed and everything went back to normal.
 

Re: Let's hash this out: How to best release rare things...
« Reply #22 on: September 10, 2012, 09:00:31 PM »
 

Aaron

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I have slow internet and I do fine buying rare releases. It is really just too bad for those people then, If you want the deck stay up or set an alarm to get the deck, if they dont that is their problem.

So then you wouldn't mind if the sale took place at 3:15am on a weekday, during a time that your Internet service was down due to a huge storm creating a power outage in your area?

The minute someone says something like "It's their problem", the statements made with it are usually about something that's anything but fair.


Haha ok first of all I love getting in debates like this. And I would be disappointed if that happened but that is my problem not the designer or other buyers problems. If I had internet though and it was a 3:15 release I would be fine to go on and get some decks.

Quote
Spend-X to get something just drives the price for the item way up, and only allows people with lots of money to purchase. And it is only good for people who dont own alot from the site

Quote
How does it drive the price up?  The price of the case remains the same.  The fact thatv you would need to purchase other items as well is a factor, true, but they aren't part of the price of the case.  The threshold doesn't need to be up in the sky, really, as far as who can purchase.  But still, it's imperfect in that only the first 25 who hit that goal get that case.

 It drives up the price because people want to get the money then spent just to get that item for free back and then they list the item at a higher price, it eventually comes down a bit but if you look at a deck like the LTD, it was around $75 for awile and is now down to $50. If people had not had to spend $150 to get them I think that they would be selling for less than that now.


Quote
Lottery is stupid because of all the corruption it is prone too and people who dont get a chance to buy will be pissed off.

Quote
This I disagree with.  Corruption?  What incentive does Paul have to run a corrupt auction?  Bribery?  It's a little ridiculous.  You could as easily say all lotteries are awful because of the potential corruption, whether or not such corruption even exists.  And who wouldn't be getting a chance?  If it's as simple as "buy a deck, get a chance", the only people without a chance are the people who didn't buy a deck, who by the very nature of the customized case would only be interested in it for its potential resale value and have no interest in actually purchasing Paul's primary product, his playing cards.

Paul doesnt but I think it opens doors for unknown companies to do sketchy things, and in that type of theing in a closed drawing where you dont know how random it really is and stuff it could end up being unfair. The seller could forget names, put too many/not enough of some people in drawing, ect. just too many things could go wrong. Real lotteries have laws regulating these types of things. And I personally would not feel that the lottery is fair if some guy no one had ever heard of just told you some names.

Quote
People just need to stop being whiney when stuff is released and if they get the stuff congrats and if they don't suck it up and hope for luck on the next release.

The ONLY way to release items fairly is on a first-come first-served basis.

Quote
I couldn't disagree more on this.

There's one thing that people need to remember about the idea of this little premium product.  Paul has probably created it with the intent of having it INCREASE HIS DECK SALES.  Letting it go to the first 25 people who log in a purchase, only to see few of them buy his deck and many of them putting it for sale on eBay at pirate's prices, doesn't help his deck sales one bit - if anything, the potential for LOST SALES from frustrated customers is higher in this case.

And don't forget, my idea for this would involve GIVING AWAY the cases rather than actually selling them - in essence, using them as a "loss leader" to get people to buy more decks than they'd originally planned to.  In a somewhat modified way, this is what E does with all of their limited-edition decks and other reward items given for purchases of a certain dollar amount - but Paul can't exactly emulate E on this because the cases are beyond rare compared to anything E is offering.  There's 5,000 of any rare E deck while there's only 25 Aurum cases.

There are two ways to create "fair" in this case.  There's "fair" with near-complete disregard to the sales of Aurum decks, and there's "fair" with the goal of increased sales in mind.

The first version of "fair" would be accomplished if anyone buying anything from him gets exactly one chance, period.  It's fair in the sense that everyone has an equal chance, but doesn't aid in the objective of selling more Aurum decks.

The second version of "fair" isn't absolutely fair, but it's a balance of being moderately fair and creating an incentive to buy more Aurum decks, and that's offering people one chance per deck they purchase, then setting a deadline date for a drawing to see who wins the deck cases (and not allowing anyone to obtain more than one case, so someone's winning chance being drawn more than once would simply result in a redraw).

While it's true that people with deeper pockets will purchase more decks and have more chances to get a case, it's also true that their odds won't dramatically increase unless they were buying decks in massive numbers - and in the end, all those decks bought still couldn't result in more than a single case going to that person.  Meanwhile, the "little guy" who might normally buy one or two decks still has a shot, and perhaps he'll buy three or four this time instead, with hopes of getting one of those super-rare cases.  And he does stand a chance of getting it, and Paul sells a LOT of decks this way.  He even can save on shipping costs for his customers, since depending on methods used, it can be as much to send one deck as it would be to ship three to six decks.

that isnt a bad idea but I just really dont like the lottery idea, just a personal thing.

The best idea IMO aside from a first-come first-served is a spend-x system.
People say nothing's impossible, but I do nothing everyday.

Today I found something that reminded me of you. But don't worry I flushed and everything went back to normal.
 

Re: Let's hash this out: How to best release rare things...
« Reply #23 on: September 11, 2012, 03:11:23 AM »
 

Don Boyer

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Looks like you double-posted, Aaron!

If your primary concern regarding an auction is that it can be corrupted, then all Paul would need to do to insure the fairness of it would be to put it on RANDOM.ORG - you can see the pool from which the drawing was made and the list of the winning drawings.  To insure anonymity of the participants, he can simply use your unique customer ID numbers.  For example, if we do one entry per deck bought, Joe Magic bought a half-brick, and his CID is 3952, then the entries for his decks would be something like:

3952 - 1 of 12
3952 - 2 of 12
etc.
3952 - 12 of 12

If instead, the idea was just one entry per person, it's even simpler - just list the CID number by itself, period.  Anyone can inspect the list, insure they were indeed in the drawing as many times as they were supposed to be, see the winning numbers, etc.


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Re: Let's hash this out: How to best release rare things...
« Reply #24 on: September 12, 2012, 04:27:07 PM »
 

chisairi

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after reading everyone's reply I find there is actually 1 problem with everyone's answer.

How do you define FAIR?

This is what I think after reading all the methods

method 1 - spend x amount to get a rare item.
~the deep pocket wins - they have the money to spend
~seller wins - generates sales
~ebay people win - because of the amount they must spend to get the item, it's a super high price in the after market
~small buyer gets nothing except for the few decks and watch ebay people sell with a  price they can't afford

method 2 - lottery
~seller loses -  what if the pricing is too high for the buyer. do it again? too time consuming
~seller loses -  don't get much sales generation from this since other 1 deck is 1 chance and ordering 12 decks is 1 chance..
~seller and deep pocket wins  - do get sales generation if 1 deck is 1 chance and 12 decks are 12 chances
~small buyer gets nothing
~ebay people wins if they can get lucky

method 3 - bidding
~deeper pocket wins (i use deeper pocket because it depends on your competitions and how lucky you are)
~seller wins - generate high net profit
~smaller buyer can participate and bid to what they can afford - win or lose depends on the pool
~ebay people win or lose..depends on luck! if they really want to get this item they must win the bid. if they are unlucky, they win the bid at high price that means bad sales on ebay. if they are lucky they win the bid at a low price and be able to make profit off ebay.


Conclusion is NOTHING is fair depends on what point of view you are looking at...

Side note: When you say this is stupid or it's a bad idea or you are wrong please say why. Saying it's stupid doesn't add anything to the conversation.