Rarity and Speculation - What Is Rare?

[BiggerDee]

With 15,000 decks printed, it's in no way a limited edition!

ADMIN NOTE: this topic evolved out of a discussion in the topic for Zach Mueller's Blue Fontaine deck, which Zach declared was made in a print run of 15,000 decks.  -Don Boyer

[Don Boyer]

With 15,000 decks printed, it's in no way a limited edition!

Sure it is - if he's not printing more, it's limited, regardless of how large a limit that might be.  The limit need not be low for something to be "limited edition".

[BiggerDee]

Don, don't confuse me with facts! :-)

You know what I mean. In that regard, everything made is a limited edition! I mean limited edition in the normal meaning, card collector wise.

[Don Boyer]

Don, don't confuse me with facts! :-)

You know what I mean. In that regard, everything made is a limited edition! I mean limited edition in the normal meaning, card collector wise.

The "normal" meaning?

Not meaning to nitpick, but let's get a few things straight for all.

(And no, I'm not getting in your grille - it's for knowledge, plain and simple, not personal at all.  )

Decks that are meant to be (or can be) printed indefinitely are NOT genuinely limited editions.  Bicycle Rider Backs are printed constantly, so they aren't limited.  The blue version of the Bohemia deck is not limited, either - while there hasn't been a second printing, the designers designated the original color as the limited edition, so if they chose to do so, that color can be reprinted to their heart's content.

I suppose we could differentiate them by called the Rider Backs a "continuous print" deck, at least until USPC decides to retire it in favor for something else.  The other type, like the Bohemia, could be considered "reprintable but out of print".  The red Bohemia would indeed be limited, never to be reprinted.

You're probably thinking along the lines of all those 2,500-deck print runs.  Those are indeed limited - but not "as limited" as something like the Zenith deck, with a 1,000-deck print run.  But much more "limited" as a deck with a print run of 15,000.  But they're ALL limited.

Which raises the question: when EVERY deck is rare, is any deck really rare anymore?  You can compare quantities in existence for determining rarity, but the real measure would be how easy or difficult it is to obtain one.  Most decks these days don't even fit that criteria, with only a few exceptions, things like Zenith deck or White Centurions or black Moth/Myth decks.  You certainly can't use price, since there are decks like the White Gold-Seal Bicycle New Fan Backs, even more rare than the White Centurions but really inexpensive and not as hard to get by comparison.

[John B.]

Don, don't confuse me with facts! :-)

You know what I mean. In that regard, everything made is a limited edition! I mean limited edition in the normal meaning, card collector wise.

The "normal" meaning?

Not meaning to nitpick, but let's get a few things straight for all.

(And no, I'm not getting in your grille - it's for knowledge, plain and simple, not personal at all.  )

Decks that are meant to be (or can be) printed indefinitely are NOT genuinely limited editions.  Bicycle Rider Backs are printed constantly, so they aren't limited.  The blue version of the Bohemia deck is not limited, either - while there hasn't been a second printing, the designers designated the original color as the limited edition, so if they chose to do so, that color can be reprinted to their heart's content.

I suppose we could differentiate them by called the Rider Backs a "continuous print" deck, at least until USPC decides to retire it in favor for something else.  The other type, like the Bohemia, could be considered "reprintable but out of print".  The red Bohemia would indeed be limited, never to be reprinted.

You're probably thinking along the lines of all those 2,500-deck print runs.  Those are indeed limited - but not "as limited" as something like the Zenith deck, with a 1,000-deck print run.  But much more "limited" as a deck with a print run of 15,000.  But they're ALL limited.

Which raises the question: when EVERY deck is rare, is any deck really rare anymore?  You can compare quantities in existence for determining rarity, but the real measure would be how easy or difficult it is to obtain one.  Most decks these days don't even fit that criteria, with only a few exceptions, things like Zenith deck or White Centurions or black Moth/Myth decks.  You certainly can't use price, since there are decks like the White Gold-Seal Bicycle New Fan Backs, even more rare than the White Centurions but really inexpensive and not as hard to get by comparison.

Actually Don he is right everything is limited, including riderbacks. Each deck would come from a certain printing batch. Now no one may actual know which one it came from, but its still from that batch which was a certain amount of decks, thus limited. :p

[Don Boyer]

Actually Don he is right everything is limited, including riderbacks. Each deck would come from a certain printing batch. Now no one may actual know which one it came from, but its still from that batch which was a certain amount of decks, thus limited. :p

No, you missed his argument - he didn't say everything is limited until later in the argument.  His initial argument was that this deck was not limited if they were planning to create a print run of 15,000.

The Bicycle Rider Back - a.k.a. Bicycle Standard - will not be limited until they stop printing it.  As it is continually and regularly being printed in massive quantities, it is NOT limited.  If Standards are "limited", you could argue that, on a global scale, air is limited or water is limited, even though both are renewable resources.  Sure there is a finite number of air molecules on Earth, but they are constantly renewed - animals breathe in oxygenated air and exhale carbon dioxide, while plants respire by absorbing carbon dioxide and converting it to oxygenated air.  Water is consumed, put out as waste, processed to be drinkable again; it evaporates, it rains into the ground, it settles in the water table, the water table feeds the wells, rivers, lakes, etc. where it evaporates all over again.  It's just as easy to argue that there are a finite number of stars in our universe at any given moment, so they, too, are rare and limited...and the argument holds just as much water.  In fact, that argument plus four quarters is still worth only a buck.

[John B.]

Actually Don he is right everything is limited, including riderbacks. Each deck would come from a certain printing batch. Now no one may actual know which one it came from, but its still from that batch which was a certain amount of decks, thus limited. :p

No, you missed his argument - he didn't say everything is limited until later in the argument.  His initial argument was that this deck was not limited if they were planning to create a print run of 15,000.

The Bicycle Rider Back - a.k.a. Bicycle Standard - will not be limited until they stop printing it.  As it is continually and regularly being printed in massive quantities, it is NOT limited.  If Standards are "limited", you could argue that, on a global scale, air is limited or water is limited, even though both are renewable resources.  Sure there is a finite number of air molecules on Earth, but they are constantly renewed - animals breathe in oxygenated air and exhale carbon dioxide, while plants respire by absorbing carbon dioxide and converting it to oxygenated air.  Water is consumed, put out as waste, processed to be drinkable again; it evaporates, it rains into the ground, it settles in the water table, the water table feeds the wells, rivers, lakes, etc. where it evaporates all over again.  It's just as easy to argue that there are a finite number of stars in our universe at any given moment, so they, too, are rare and limited...and the argument holds just as much water.  In fact, that argument plus four quarters is still worth only a buck.

lol fine you win.

[BiggerDee]

I understand what you're saying Don and I in no way take it personally. I didn't think that I would have to explain the intent of my statement, but I will for clarity. When someone says "Limited edition deck!" my mind pops up a run of 2,500 or less, and I probably lean towards less. I don't consider 15,000 (at the very least, he may print more) a limited edition in the modern deck world, adn I would venture to say that most likely, many otehrs think along the same lines. When was the last time that anyone used the phrase "Limited edition" for a deck quantity over 5K? It's not often that happens, thus the reason that it stood out, and I found it marginally humorous. I try to keep my posts short, infrequent, and relevant, because I respect the time of everyone here,a dn I appreciate those who take the time to read my posts and consider my opinion. For that reason, I (apparently mistakenly) assumed that everyone would understand my point without me having to produce a lengthy diatribe clarifying a simple sentence. As far as I know, nothing that is produced has been produced forever (manufacturing-wise) so everything that was ever manufactured, or ever will eb manufactured, is a limited edition, if you care to get down to brass tacks. Rider backs won't be made forever, so they are a "Limited edition", but suffice it to say I think that more than a few of us would chuckle if they started putting a LE decal on the stacks and stacks of them that they sell every day. I just found it humorous that the sellers on eBay have them listed at elevated prices, hawking the "It's a limited edition!" statement far and wide. Sure they are correct. My car model was made by the tens of thousands, but I have done specific things to make it unique. That said, I wouldn't list it for sale shouting "Limited edition, one of a kind, the only one like it in the world!! You MUST have it!!" because that would be absurd. That was the gist of what I was saying, and what I believed would be garnered from my post. I just see board posts ans fun and casual conversation amongst friends as opposed to presentation of scientific findings to a group of peers, where everything has to be laid out in a certain way, with footnotes and references at the ready. If it's not fun and interesting, then what's the point?

[Don Boyer]

I understand what you're saying Don and I in no way take it personally. I didn't think that I would have to explain the intent of my statement, but I will for clarity. When someone says "Limited edition deck!" my mind pops up a run of 2,500 or less, and I probably lean towards less. I don't consider 15,000 (at the very least, he may print more) a limited edition in the modern deck world, adn I would venture to say that most likely, many otehrs think along the same lines. When was the last time that anyone used the phrase "Limited edition" for a deck quantity over 5K? It's not often that happens, thus the reason that it stood out, and I found it marginally humorous. I try to keep my posts short, infrequent, and relevant, because I respect the time of everyone here,a dn I appreciate those who take the time to read my posts and consider my opinion. For that reason, I (apparently mistakenly) assumed that everyone would understand my point without me having to produce a lengthy diatribe clarifying a simple sentence. As far as I know, nothing that is produced has been produced forever (manufacturing-wise) so everything that was ever manufactured, or ever will eb manufactured, is a limited edition, if you care to get down to brass tacks. Rider backs won't be made forever, so they are a "Limited edition", but suffice it to say I think that more than a few of us would chuckle if they started putting a LE decal on the stacks and stacks of them that they sell every day. I just found it humorous that the sellers on eBay have them listed at elevated prices, hawking the "It's a limited edition!" statement far and wide. Sure they are correct. My car model was made by the tens of thousands, but I have done specific things to make it unique. That said, I wouldn't list it for sale shouting "Limited edition, one of a kind, the only one like it in the world!! You MUST have it!!" because that would be absurd. That was the gist of what I was saying, and what I believed would be garnered from my post. I just see board posts ans fun and casual conversation amongst friends as opposed to presentation of scientific findings to a group of peers, where everything has to be laid out in a certain way, with footnotes and references at the ready. If it's not fun and interesting, then what's the point?

Actually, I was trying to draw you to a certain point - which you've reached.

Who, you say, would mark a 15K deck run as limited?  You'd be surprised.  I personally know of a few of the bigger deck companies that make a print run in the low five figures, advertising it as "limited edition".  They're true in that yes, they didn't make an infinite amount and they aren't making any more - but to most modern deck collectors, that quantity would be considered laughable as far as "limited" decks go.

Is this indeed right, though, in terms of our perceptions?  Should it really matter?  In the grand scheme of things, if a deck can be owned by only 0.0000167% of the world's population or 0.000333% of it, is the difference that vast in the grand scheme of things?

The first number is maximum potential ownership of a 1,000-deck print run by a population of six billion.  Not more than one in six million people can own it.

The second number is maximum potential ownership of a 20,000-deck print run by a population of 6 billion.  Not more than one in 300,000 people can own it.

They're both pretty incredibly effing rare, no matter how you slice it.  Argue all you want about how the 20K run is that much less rare, but look at those percentage numbers and tell me it adds up to more than a simple drop in the bucket...  Both cases assume everyone only gets a single deck - which is RARELY the case, meaning they're even more rare than we though in terms of the number of people who own them at any given time.  And none of that takes deck attrition into account.

When we start talking about splitting hairs on rarity like that, only speculators win - they're the ones who revel in this stuff because they're the ones seeking to sell their decks in the post-retail market for a big profit over what they paid.  They're the ones who make rare decks so difficult to obtain in the first place.  In an ideal market for the buyer, speculators wouldn't exist.

I'm going to break off this end of the topic into a new one, since it clearly has little to do with Zach's deck anymore.

[BiggerDee]

I agree with John B.

I give up, you win.

[Rob Wright]

I think there is a difference in being rare, and a limited edition. Nothing is truly limited. Just because someone says they will not reprint something, doesn't mean they won't. Then limited turns into Version 1 of Madison deal/round/gamblers etc.
I think rare is, how many people want something, there for- a lucky few have, and nobody else can buy without selling a left nut.

examples-taking the big boys and vintage decks out of the equation.

Not so rare-You can get most of Elite's decks at various places on line for about $10-which is about what the were on KS

A little rarer- You can get some of Jacksons decks on-line at a fair price-about double the original price for most-some a little more- like the unbranded black deck.

And finally-pretty ef'n hard to find- I would love a set of original Blue Blood's. There is one guy on eBay selling them for $70 a piece from Taiwan -so who knows if they are real or not. Every time someone puts one up on the "post your collection" thread-First thing said-Wow- where did you find that?

[PurpleIce]

Yes, i think we cannot fault Don when he says everything is limited.

But what i think everyone is trying to say is, based on the playing card community (which includes Collectors, Magicians, Cardists, Players..etc) which of these decks are highly sought after by the majority. If anyone has played trading card games before, you will know that there are cheap "rare" cards, and highly sought after "common" but extremely useful cards.

Although the usage for decks are all the same, we can based on the quantity printed, quality of the printer, the design aspect..etc to give examples or create a list of "rare" "Highly sought after decks". Of course everyone has different tastes and opinions, but at the end of the day, a good design will appeal to most, if not all, while an average one will only have a certain group of followers. Maybe we can compile the results and we will know which are the decks people want and which are those only we want.

Of course there will be another argument on "playing card plethora" is only a small market compared to the whole card industry.....but it is always good to start somewhere..no?

[52plusjoker]

At the risk of boring people - a few comments about antique and vintage decks. Regardless of the Oxford Dictionary definition of limited, when talking or writing about a "limited edition" of a certain vintage or antique deck, the meaning has been a deck where the publisher has announced that there will only be a specific number printed. Size of the run does not impact this. So we know of limited editions of as few as six hand made decks and as many as 15,000 printed ones [the value of the latter being $100+ each due to their age and desirability]. Also in most limited editions the decks are numbered [eg #63 of 1000]. In some cases additional runs of the same deck have been done - but the run is not described as or considered part of the Limited Edition, nor would they be numbered. Hope this helps!

[Card Player]

@ Rob Wright

Absolutely, there is a difference between rare and limited. When you say "nothing is truly limited", it's actually the opposite. Nothing is unlimited forever, not even WATER and AIR.  Our Earth and Sun are limited. Does that make the Earth and Sun rare? That's a matter of one's perspective. While the Earth is not rare to us, scientifically it is very rare.

The producers perspective of what's rare is really up to them. Whats rare to us is an entirely different perspective that we can only decide for ourselves.

[Rob Wright]

@ Rob Wright
When you say "nothing is truly limited", it's actually the opposite. Nothing is unlimited forever, not even WATER and AIR.  Our Earth and Sun are limited. Does that make the Earth and Sun rare? That's a matter of one's perspective. While the Earth is not rare to us, scientifically it is very rare.

If we are talking in absolutes, I agree. I understand that "nothing" is an absolute, but I'm generalizing as pertains to modern playing cards. Modern decks can be reprinted over and over. There's been decks where the only difference between print runs is a V2 on the bottom of the tuck. For me, I won't spend $50 on a 1st printing if I can get a 2nd printing for $5

[Don Boyer]

At the risk of boring people - a few comments about antique and vintage decks. Regardless of the Oxford Dictionary definition of limited, when talking or writing about a "limited edition" of a certain vintage or antique deck, the meaning has been a deck where the publisher has announced that there will only be a specific number printed. Size of the run does not impact this. So we know of limited editions of as few as six hand made decks and as many as 15,000 printed ones [the value of the latter being $100+ each due to their age and desirability]. Also in most limited editions the decks are numbered [eg #63 of 1000]. In some cases additional runs of the same deck have been done - but the run is not described as or considered part of the Limited Edition, nor would they be numbered. Hope this helps!

That's interesting to know.  With modern custom decks, it wasn't until Tyler Deeb/Pedale Design released the "Misc. Goods Co." deck that we started seeing numbered limited editions - in his case, hand-numbered.  While more often than not we do find the larger custom deck companies will release a limited-edition deck and announce the size of the print run, but some will withhold the print run size, leaving buyers guessing as to precisely how limited a deck really is.  Dan and Dave rarely announce the size of a print run, and I can't recall David Blaine or Big Blind Media ever doing so.  It's something we more consistently find with Ellusionist, Theory11 and the Blue Crown/HOPC.

With Kickstarter, however, it's become a matter of course to reveal the size of a print run because backers want to know where their money is going.  It makes me wonder if this will incite change among the larger custom makers.  We're seeing this to some extent with HOPC shifting a good amount of their custom deck work to Kickstarter projects and with Dan and Dave and their Deckstarter project.

Even when the print run is announced, it's a rare thing today to find the manufacturer actually serially-numbering the individual decks, be it by hand and pen or by sticker.

[Paul Carpenter]

As someone that makes decks, I prefer to think of "limited" meaning that there is a set number, I tell you that number, and I won't print more in the future. In most cases these days, that number is usually 5,000 or less available. Personally, if I printed 15,000 of one design I probably would not market it specifically with the term "limited" but that just is me.

[Card Player]

@ Rob Wright
When you say "nothing is truly limited", it's actually the opposite. Nothing is unlimited forever, not even WATER and AIR.  Our Earth and Sun are limited. Does that make the Earth and Sun rare? That's a matter of one's perspective. While the Earth is not rare to us, scientifically it is very rare.

If we are talking in absolutes, I agree. I understand that "nothing" is an absolute, but I'm generalizing as pertains to modern playing cards. Modern decks can be reprinted over and over. There's been decks where the only difference between print runs is a V2 on the bottom of the tuck. For me, I won't spend $50 on a 1st printing if I can get a 2nd printing for $5

Yes, modern decks can be printed over and over again. That is the limit being established again and again.

Its one of those words that has implied meaning but means very little, unless a specific TIME or QUANTITY of measurement is included with it. Saying something is simply LIMITED and that's it, is a CON. The word becomes a boundless measurement that can be manipulated by producer or manufacture at their discretion.

From strictly a functionality point of view, I understand NOT paying $50. I'm all about getting value. However, if your someone that's a collector and wants Split Spade Lions for example. Simply getting Silver Edition is not going to satisfy your craving for very long. You will eventually start "hunting down" (not necessarily obtaining) the 1st Edition.

[Sher143]

The question is - What is rare?

Dictionary definition of "rare" - "(of a thing) not found in large numbers and consequently of interest or value."

So there's two parts to this:
1) Not found in large numbers - most collectors would find a print run of 15,000 large. Sure, by definition, it is limited, but it won't be very difficult to find. 
2) Of interest or value - because the print run is considered large and not very difficult to find, it would most likely not get as much interest from collectors... there is not as much demand for the deck.

So to be rare, a deck has to be both: a bit more difficult to find (because of the low quantity) and of some interest (people have to want it). If there's only 5 of a particular deck, but no one wants it, it's not considered rare. If there's 15,000 of a deck and many people want it, it's still not considered rare.

I know the world "limited" is used almost interchangeably with "rare," but of course they have slightly different meanings (and the meaning of "limited" has already been discussed). I think when most people say "limited" they actually mean "rare." When a designer says his deck is "limited" he/she is really implying something along the lines of, "Hey, there aren't going to be a lot of these around. Get yours now or you'll probably have a difficult time getting a hold of one later, because everyone will want this!"

[Afrank8]

In terms of playing cards  I wouldn't think there's too many truly rare decks. Something like the pre release monarchs with gold ink on the backs, of which around 144 were made is what I'd consider rare.  I agree with sher that there's a distinction between rare and limited to be made, you have to consider that there are some limited edition  decks, for example Jackson robinsons Sherlock ones, which are still quite easy to get hold of if you have the money. Rare decks are ones that wouldn't be commonly available/ would be hard to find. For me personally that is what makes something rare.

[52plusjoker]

In terms of playing cards  I wouldn't think there's too many truly rare decks. Something like the pre release monarchs with gold ink on the backs, of which around 144 were made is what I'd consider rare.  I agree with sher that there's a distinction between rare and limited to be made, you have to consider that there are some limited edition  decks, for example Jackson robinsons Sherlock ones, which are still quite easy to get hold of if you have the money. Rare decks are ones that wouldn't be commonly available/ would be hard to find. For me personally that is what makes something rare.

These terms need to be taken in context. For an antique deck, rare probably means a collector doesn't see it often and has very few opportunities over his/her collecting life to acquire one. Price would range from hundreds to thousands of dollars. Rare antique decks would often have been made in quantities that would make 15,000 look modest - but only a handful are still around - for example, there are precious few Bee decks around with the earliest Ace and Joker from the 1895 era, even though many thousands were manufactured. Reason obviously is because they got used for what they were manufactured for - playing games - and few survive. Most modern decks [last 1-15 years] made as collectibles, even if from a limited run of say 1,000, are not rare because most of them still survive.
Those who visited the Field Collection exhibition at Columbia in May, would have seen a 2008 deck  http://www.lauradavidson.com/w-cards1.html that is both limited and rare - 20 decks manufactured, hard to find one to acquire and selling in the $2500+ range if you do find one.

[Don Boyer]

That's an excellent point, Tom.  I guarantee that a vintage collector and a modern collector have very different perspectives on what really is rare and what isn't.

The thing with a limited edition is it's designed from the beginning to be rare.  That's a situation that vintage collectors don't run into as frequently.  We run into situations where every other deck is coming out as a limited edition, especially if it's a Kickstarter project.  Suddenly, nearly EVERYTHING is limited - so the term gets somewhat devalued.  When everything is rare, is anything truly rare?

Sher, there are some decks out there that I know were printed in quantities in the low five digits which were labeled as "limited" and now fetch a healthy premium on the market.  I know of others that are in limited numbers well below 10,000 but don't fetch nearly as much.  The market does not work perfectly or even logically - it's as fallible as the humans participating in it.

[52plusjoker]

That's an excellent point, Tom.  I guarantee that a vintage collector and a modern collector have very different perspectives on what really is rare and what isn't.

Sher, there are some decks out there that I know were printed in quantities in the low five digits which were labeled as "limited" and now fetch a healthy premium on the market.  I know of others that are in limited numbers well below 10,000 but don't fetch nearly as much.  The market does not work perfectly or even logically - it's as fallible as the humans participating in it.

Well Don some truth there. But of course the market takes more into account than the number of copies available - design, desirability, condition, rarity, interest to collectors in other disciplines [crossover effect], etc.