Contest - What Day Will Someone Make the 100,000th Post?

[Don Boyer]

It's simple.  It's like a betting pool.  As of this moment, we're at 97,707 posts.  I'll be checking at midnight Eastern time every day to see when the 100,000th post is made.  Spam gets trashed, period.  Double posting is prohibited - it always was, but I'm more closely enforcing that for the duration of the contest.

Make a post, pick a day.  One entry per person.  On the day we hit 99,500 posts, entries are closed at midnight.  On the day the 100,000th post drops, all people who chose that day go into a random drawing (courtesy of Random.org).  Winner gets a SECRET SURPRISE.  I can tell you Tom and Lee are picking it out.  I can also tell you it's NOT the silver club deck in the fancy box!  But it will be cool, collectible and desirable.  We just don't know what it is yet!

LATE EDIT: Kardify is offering an additional prize for the winner - a limited-edition boxed set of Aquila playing cards!  Presentation box, one deck each of the limited and standard editions with serial-numbered holographic seals and a matching certificate signed by the artist!

LATE EDIT: Nurul is offering a "second chance" prize for all those who chose the wrong date - a red-blue set of Serpentine playing cards by Legends PCC!  To be eligible, you must have guessed the INCORRECT date - guesses of the correct date that didn't win the main prize are NOT eligible!

In the event that NO ONE has guessed the correct date, we will choose the closest date chosen by someone BEFORE the winning date.  Ex.: Rose chooses 03 March, no one chooses 04 March or 05 March, BiggerDee chooses 06 March and the 100,000th post occurs on 05 March.  BiggerDee's guess is closer than Rose's, but Rose's guess occurred BEFORE the 100,000th post and would win.  If PurpleIce also chose 03 March, they would be entered in a random drawing for the winner along with anyone else who chose their date.

For international folks: now that Daylight Saving Time is over in the US and Canada as of 02 Nov at 2:00AM, midnight Eastern Standard Time (EST) is 05:00 UTC in the same day.  Ex.: midnight Monday morning EST is 05:00 Monday morning UTC.  Some people in this example would refer to midnight as occurring Sunday night, but they would be incorrect as midnight (00:00 in 24-hour time, 12:00 AM in 12-hour time) in a given location is the start of the new date and occurs in that new date, not the previous one.

Questions?  Ask.    Good luck, everyone!


Choices Made So Far (Updated Daily Just After Midnight)

SUNDAY	MONDAY	TUESDAY	WEDNESDAY	THURSDAY	FRIDAY	SATURDAY
02 Nov	03 Nov	04 Nov Collector	05 Nov	06 Nov	07 Nov	08 Nov
09 Nov	10 Nov	11 Nov	12 Nov	13 Nov Rose	14 Nov	15 Nov
16 Nov	17 Nov	18 Nov	19 Nov piratebear81	20 Nov doubledouble	21 Nov anhedonia	22 Nov Anderson
23 Nov Nurul	24 Nov	25 Nov Card Player Zim	26 Nov	27 Nov Fes	28 Nov alvinhy	29 Nov PrincessTrouble
30 Nov John B. aldazar	01 Dec ozfan30	02 Dec	03 Dec Leif	04 Dec Yashi	05 Dec	06 Dec bruh man
07 Dec kdklown	08 Dec ecNate	09 Dec	10 Dec	11 Dec cbkimble	12 Dec PurpleIce	13 Dec volantangel
14 Dec Will W.	15 Dec Justin O.	16 Dec	17 Dec	18 Dec	19 Dec flyers3003	20 Dec
21 Dec Siegismyname	22 Dec	23 Dec	24 Dec	25 Dec	26 Dec	27 Dec
28 Dec	29 Dec	30 Dec	31 Dec	01 Jan	02 Jan	03 Jan CherryNukaCola
04 Jan	05 Jan	06 Jan	07 Jan	08 Jan	09 Jan	10 Jan
11 Jan	12 Jan	13 Jan	14 Jan	15 Jan	16 Jan	17 Jan
18 Jan Marcus troy	19 Jan	20 Jan	21 Jan BiggerDee	22 Jan	23 Jan	24 Jan

[PurpleIce]

Will the person making the 100,000th post get a prize too? 

More winners more fun!

[Don Boyer]

Will the person making the 100,000th post get a prize too? 

More winners more fun!

I'm afraid not.  It would be too difficult to determine exactly who that poster was.  It also might encourage spam dumping as people fought to be that poster.  (Which would cause possible multiple 100,000th post writers as I remove the spam!)  With just the betting pool concept, the playing field is reasonably level and there's an element of chance involved as well.

[Rose]

13th November at 8:13 pm EST

[Don Boyer]

13th November at 8:13 pm EST

Noted - but you only need to choose a date, not a time.  I check the totals at midnight daily (Eastern).

[alvinhy]

28th November 2014

[BiggerDee]

I'm confused...Don, I thought that you made close to 100,000 posts every day all by yourself...

;-)

My guess: January 21st, 2015.

[PurpleIce]

12th December 2014
12/12 

[Rose]

13th November at 8:13 pm EST

Noted - but you only need to choose a date, not a time.  I check the totals at midnight daily (Eastern).

I know. 

[Will W.]

November 14, 2014 

Modified my post... I hope thats ok.. I put December when I meant November... Been up for well over 30 hours and counting. 

[Don Boyer]

We're at 97,801 posts - I was a little late getting the total, a bit busy.

Tom and Lee mentioned they were offering a surprise prize, right?  Kardify has announced they'd ALSO like to donate a prize!  The donated prize is a special boxed set of Aquila playing cards - the set that was in the $40 tier for their Kickstarter project.  It's a lovely presentation box with one deck each of the standard and limited edition decks, each with a holographic seal added and a matching certificate signed by artist Ade Suryana.  The tucks and the certificate are identically serial-numbered and are part of a series of only 500.  The decks themselves are printed by the Legends Playing Card Company.

So now that's TWO prizes for the winner!  Good luck, folks.

[Marcus]

January 18th.

[Rose]

Can I change mine to the 18th of Nov at 7:23am EST?  Sorry I changed my mind!

[Don Boyer]

Can I change mine to the 18th of Nov at 7:23am EST?  Sorry I changed my mind!

I want to say yes, but if I allow you to do it, then more people are going to want to do it - and if I say no to them, they'll tell me, "But you let ROSE do it!!  Why not ME?!?"  As much as I would love to, I have to say no.

I'm considering a "second chance" prize - like a sweepstakes for the people choosing the wrong date.  But it's only under consideration - no firm plans yet.

[Nurul]

23rd Nov

[Rose]

Can I change mine to the 18th of Nov at 7:23am EST?  Sorry I changed my mind!

I want to say yes, but if I allow you to do it, then more people are going to want to do it - and if I say no to them, they'll tell me, "But you let ROSE do it!!  Why not ME?!?"  As much as I would love to, I have to say no.

I'm considering a "second chance" prize - like a sweepstakes for the people choosing the wrong date.  But it's only under consideration - no firm plans yet.

Yep, understand!
Awesome, "second chance" prize!!! Sweet!

[troy]

January 18th.

[Card Player]

November 25th (2014)

On the day we hit 99,500 posts, entries are closed at midnight.

That's way too close to 100,000. You should close it sooner then that. The first choice is Nov 9th. Last day to enter a choice should be Nov 9th Midnight PST (internet time). It does not take a rocket scientist to figure out your best odds of winning will be the person who guesses nearest to the 99,500 deadline.

Also, think about all the work you have for those of us that made early submissions and want to change or edit our date as 99,500 comes closer. What a PITA that will be for you.

[Will W.]

Can I change mine to the 18th of Nov at 7:23am EST?  Sorry I changed my mind!

I want to say yes, but if I allow you to do it, then more people are going to want to do it - and if I say no to them, they'll tell me, "But you let ROSE do it!!  Why not ME?!?"  As much as I would love to, I have to say no.

I'm considering a "second chance" prize - like a sweepstakes for the people choosing the wrong date.  But it's only under consideration - no firm plans yet.

Well in all fairness, should I change mine back to my original guess of December, Don?
Hell, who knows it may have even been a "Prophetic" guess brought on by my lack of sleep.. 

[Fess]

Someone already has black friday. Good pick imho.

I'll take US thanksgiving day then, 27th of November. I'm thinking the post will happen whilst I'm watching this.

[ecNate]

I'll take Dec 8

I agree, bids need to be taken FAR earlier than that.  Perhaps end of this week or once we hit more like 98,000.  Although, while it's true the later you put a bid in the more accurate you should be, that only works if there is a date still available so there also is incentive to bid early.  All the more so if an earlier time and smaller number is used as the cut off which should help people from simply waiting.

November 25th (2014)

On the day we hit 99,500 posts, entries are closed at midnight.

That's way too close to 100,000. You should close it sooner then that. The first choice is Nov 9th. Last day to enter a choice should be Nov 9th Midnight PST (internet time). It does not take a rocket scientist to figure out your best odds of winning will be the person who guesses nearest to the 99,500 deadline.

Also, think about all the work you have for those of us that made early submissions and want to change or edit our date as 99,500 comes closer. What a PITA that will be for you.

[Justin O.]

Date: Dec 15th - Time: All Day

I love the contests this community hosts! Makes being a part of it so much fun!!

[Don Boyer]

November 25th (2014)

On the day we hit 99,500 posts, entries are closed at midnight.

That's way too close to 100,000. You should close it sooner then that. The first choice is Nov 9th. Last day to enter a choice should be Nov 9th Midnight PST (internet time). It does not take a rocket scientist to figure out your best odds of winning will be the person who guesses nearest to the 99,500 deadline.

Also, think about all the work you have for those of us that made early submissions and want to change or edit our date as 99,500 comes closer. What a PITA that will be for you.

If you look at the average number of daily posts since the board was founded, it's about 94.37 - but if you narrow that down to October 2014, the average drops significantly, 55.94 posts daily, with a wide range of daily totals, between as low as 28 and as high as 95.

At 99,500 we could be anywhere from five days to perhaps nine days or more before we hit 100,000 - plenty of time.  In fact, if you want to play averages, you can come up with some reasonable possibilities by guessing today and using statistical data on the board.  But in the end, there's that element of random chance.  The swing in the number of posts made daily is wide enough to make statistics barely better than guessing.  Plus, waiting to the last minute can backfire - forget to check in on the wrong day and you can be locked out from guessing at all, especially if post #99,500 comes through at 11:59pm!

[Zim]

Date: 25 Nov.

Chosen already for a reason.

[Card Player]

November 25th (2014)

On the day we hit 99,500 posts, entries are closed at midnight.

That's way too close to 100,000. You should close it sooner then that. The first choice is Nov 9th. Last day to enter a choice should be Nov 9th Midnight PST (internet time). It does not take a rocket scientist to figure out your best odds of winning will be the person who guesses nearest to the 99,500 deadline.

Also, think about all the work you have for those of us that made early submissions and want to change or edit our date as 99,500 comes closer. What a PITA that will be for you.

If you look at the average number of daily posts since the board was founded, it's about 94.37 - but if you narrow that down to October 2014, the average drops significantly, 55.94 posts daily, with a wide range of daily totals, between as low as 28 and as high as 95.

At 99,500 we could be anywhere from five days to perhaps nine days or more before we hit 100,000 - plenty of time.  In fact, if you want to play averages, you can come up with some reasonable possibilities by guessing today and using statistical data on the board.  But in the end, there's that element of random chance.  The swing in the number of posts made daily is wide enough to make statistics barely better than guessing.  Plus, waiting to the last minute can backfire - forget to check in on the wrong day and you can be locked out from guessing at all, especially if post #99,500 comes through at 11:59pm!

That's basically what I did. The average posts per day / by the remaining posts needed to 100,000 posts. About 24 days. November 25th. So now you can ALL jump on my wagon to squeeze me off the prize. LMAO